packaged LED market is estimated to hit $25.9B in 2018


According to information from the 15th anniversary Strategies in Light Conference in Santa Clara, California,there was moderate growth in the 7% range from 2012 to $14.4B (billion) in 2013, but the future estimate is double-digit growth over the next five years to $25.9B. General lighting already dominates consumption and will reach 57% of the packaged LED market in 2018.

The information updated much of the prior data including the release of the latest top-ten list of LED manufacturers for 3013:
Osram Opto Smeiconductors
LG Innotek
Seoul Semi
Philips Lumileds


There was little change in the rankings, although Cree moved up a spot while Lumileds dropped a bit. Still, the changes were relatively minor in a time when LED manufacturers from around the globe are making much great efforts to increase their market.


The conference discussed the top markets for LEDs, starting with backlighting for large displays including TVs and computer monitors. The LED revenue for that market will decrease by about a third over five years from the $2.6B level in 2013 as devices use fewer LEDs and the LED component prices drop. Likewise, the mobile market will drop from $2.6B in 2013 to $2.3B in 2018 with growth in LEDs for camera flash applications mitigating some of the impact of lower-cost LEDs used to light the screens.


Application of automotive LED lights, meanwhile, will experience what was called "slow steady growth," going from $1.4B in 2013 to 2.3B in 2018. The growth will comes as automakers shift to LED headlamps on mainstream models and from increased usage of LED lights in cabins as a stylistic feature that can drive sales. The signage market is also projected to grow from $1.8B to $2.4B in LED revenue over the five-year period, driven by the China market.


Still, it was lighting that was the most eyeball-attracting part of the opening presentation. And the lighting market brought an interesting pie chart to the front. In terms of where LEDs used in the lighting market are manufactured, the US stands out at 31%. The conference noted a major US company that is responsible for that. It didnt name Cree, but that companys focus on the lighting application has clearly shown it taking a leadership position in the fastest-growing application that consumes LEDs. Meanwhile, Japan produces 21% of the LEDs used in lighting and Korea is the source of 15%.


The conference also provided some details on sub-segments of the lighting market ranging from retrofit off-road LED work lamps or LED light bars to commercial fixtures to industrial lights. One point of interest is that higher-power LEDs will remain the dominant technology over the next five years in automotive led lights applications even as the mid-power LEDs take the lead now. Both types of products will gain significant market share, but the conference is not projecting mid-power devices to take a dominant position in next years.


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