NEWS
NEWS
10 technological trends are estimated to come in the year 2023
11-03-2023
Earlier in the year 2023, we would like to make an forcasted estimation and introduction about 10 technology trends that might come in the year 2023.
1) More newest transistor structure will be adopted into advanced Foundry Processes in 3nm production
In the year 2023, TSMC will still adopt FinFET structure in mass-production of 3nm products. TSMC 3nm ics will be used for PC CPU and smartphone SoC. Samsung will introduce the GAAFET-based MBCFET architecture (Multi-Bridge Channel Field-Effect Transistor) for 3nm ics. Its first-generation product is a cryptocurrency mining chip. In later 2023, Samsung will sitll use this transistor structure to produce smartphone SoCs. Both leading companies will focus more on high-performance computing and smart phone platforms in 3nm mass production because of the higher requirements for improving performance, lowering power consumption, and reducing chip area.
By the way, for mature foundry processes above 28nm, there are more developments of special processes and technology platforms such as HV (High Voltage), Analog, Mix-signal, eNVM, BCD, and RF from logic processes. They are more often used to produce peripheral ICs such as power management ICs, driver ICs, microcontrollers (MCU), and RF (Radio Frequency) required in the fields of smart phones, consumer electronics, high-performance computing, automotive, and industrial computing. There are also more market requirements in high-performance computing, new energy vehicles, and automotive electronics.
2)Booming automotive IC designs requries more and more third generation semiconductors
Automotive semiconductors are separated into two categories: IDM and Fabless. IDMs offer a wider ranges of various ECUs ,gradually from a traditional distributed architecture to Domain Control Unit (DCU) and Zone Control Unit (ZCU) architectures. Fabless will still focus on high-performance computing for vehicles and develop in-vehicle telematics systems and SoCs for self-driving computing. Currently, the 32-Bit MCU type ECU has become popular on the market. In 2023, its penetration rate will exceed 60% with a total turnover up to US$7.4 billion.
3)New specifications will be used for DRAM, Development of 200+ Layer NAND Flash Accelerates
In 2023, not only will server CPUs such as Intel Sapphire Rapids and AMD Genoa support CXL 1.0, but DRAM modules will also adopt DDR5. Also, in order to run AI and ML (Machine Learning) operations well, certain server GPUs will introduce a new generation of HBM3 specifications. So, based on planning by memory manufacturers and many xPU providers, a new generation of memory will come into the market step by step in 2023.
Stacked layers of NAND flash will be more in 2023, towards 200+ layer technology finally.With the mass production of Intel Sapphire Rapids and AMD Genoa,enterpise SSDs wil adopt PCIe 5.0 interface whose transfer rate up to 32GT/s for high-speed computing needs such as AI/ML.
4)More and more Assisted Driving applications faciliate the development of Automotive MLCC
Nowadays, L1/L2 level advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are nearly a standard configuration on new cars. L3-level ADAS systems will become an important feature on some high-end car models starting from 2023, resulting in MLCC consumption up to 3000~3500 units.
5)Electric vehicles market keeps enlgarging although the cost of battery-related materials have increased much.
Driven by the global goal of net zero carbon emission,there is more and more market demand for power batteries.In 2023, global power battery production capacity will exceed the TWh (Terawatt-hour, one million megawatt-hours) threshold and total value will be close to US$120 billion.Auto makers hope to shorten the battery supply chain to avoid supply chain problems.Using different types of batteries according to vehicle grades diversifies supply risk and reduces cost. Integrating designs through cell-to-pack (CTP), cell-to-chassis (CTC) improve the modularity of battery and chassis.
6)Chinese panel makers expanded production capacity and technology in small-size AMOLED Market
By a strategy of supply chain localization, local Chinese mobile phone manufacturers are gradually making more and more use of foldable AMOLED panels sourced from Chinese panel factories. AMOLED driver IC are expected to be converted to a RAM-less architecture to reduce costs. As flexible AMOLED panel structure is adjusted, the cost of some flexible AMOLED panel products can be reduced to that of standard Rigid AMOLED panel.
7)AMOLED notebook is another important part of the market.AMOLED notebooks are expected to cover approximately 1.7% in 2023.
Micro LED are seen in more and more applications in terms of TV and Automotive Displays Drive, Mini LED Backlight
Mini LED technology is the best solution for improving LCD contrast. Due to limited OLED production capacity, more than 95% of flat-screen TVs are expected to keep the use of LCD technology in 2023. Mini LED provides the best path for LCD TVs to improve technical specifications. Currenctly, Chinese manufacturers are actively investing in the whole supply chain of Mini LED products. Through a strategy of pricing by quantity, manufacturers can use a higher cost-efficacy to improve Mini LED backlighting penetration rate. Mini LED TV shipments are estimated to reach 4.4 million units in 2023, an annual increase of approximately 13%.
Vehicle displays are another Mini LED backlight applications. Mini LED backlights provide better brightness, contrast, and reliability and improve driving safety. In 2023, approximately 300,000 Mini LED automotive displays are estimated to be shipped, an annual increase of approximately 50%.
Smart watch wearables will be the next important application for Micro LED displays in 2023 with high-priced fitness trackers as a starting point. In the future, design will be focused on Micro LEDs combined with flexible backplanes.
Micro LED is very suitable for application in a high-end automotive environment. For example, for heads-up display (HUD) applications, a HUD integrates and projects dashboard and navigation system information onto the front windshield to ensure driving safety. Micro LEDs with active driving solutions can also be directly displayed on the transparent glass backplane to achieve a HUD function.
8)5G Smartphones market share is expected to surpass 60% in 2023
Looking forward to 2023, the proportion of 5G smartphones is estimated to cover over 60% in mobile phone market. With smartphone brands successively launching new flagship folding devices and driven by improved specifications and more competitive pricing, penetration rate is expected to reach 1.8% in 2023.
9)More and more AR/VR Products will help Accelerate Metaverse application
The Metaverse will attract more and more manufacturers to accelerate investments in AR/VR product development and launch more products to market in 2023. In the consumer market, manufacturers will focus on application such as virtual communities, games, and live streaming of virtual characters (VTubers) while commercial distance conferencing and distance education can provide more live communication and interactions through the Metaverse platform than 2D video.
AR/VR applications will also play an important role in smart manufacturing, smart transportation, and smart cities in order for energy conservation and carbon reduction. Supported by AI applications and computing performance, virtual simulations will reduce the costs of running corporations and governments.
10) Wireless Home Broadband will become more popular in 2023 owning to large-scale commercial use of 5G FWA around the world
Nowadays, 83 operators in more than 45 countries and regions worldwide have provided 3GPP-compliant 5G FWA services. In 2023, operators around the world have invested more in the wireless broadband construction. Operators are also providing the deployment of FWA services, accelerating the application of broadband Internet services, and improving transmission rates through wireless communication technology.The availablity of new spectrum in multiple frequency bands and services that are becoming gradually more affordable to families will result in the faster development of 5G FWA in 2023.
The 2023 is already on the way, let us wait to see if all of these 10 technical anticipations will become true by the end of this year.
1) More newest transistor structure will be adopted into advanced Foundry Processes in 3nm production
In the year 2023, TSMC will still adopt FinFET structure in mass-production of 3nm products. TSMC 3nm ics will be used for PC CPU and smartphone SoC. Samsung will introduce the GAAFET-based MBCFET architecture (Multi-Bridge Channel Field-Effect Transistor) for 3nm ics. Its first-generation product is a cryptocurrency mining chip. In later 2023, Samsung will sitll use this transistor structure to produce smartphone SoCs. Both leading companies will focus more on high-performance computing and smart phone platforms in 3nm mass production because of the higher requirements for improving performance, lowering power consumption, and reducing chip area.
By the way, for mature foundry processes above 28nm, there are more developments of special processes and technology platforms such as HV (High Voltage), Analog, Mix-signal, eNVM, BCD, and RF from logic processes. They are more often used to produce peripheral ICs such as power management ICs, driver ICs, microcontrollers (MCU), and RF (Radio Frequency) required in the fields of smart phones, consumer electronics, high-performance computing, automotive, and industrial computing. There are also more market requirements in high-performance computing, new energy vehicles, and automotive electronics.
2)Booming automotive IC designs requries more and more third generation semiconductors
Automotive semiconductors are separated into two categories: IDM and Fabless. IDMs offer a wider ranges of various ECUs ,gradually from a traditional distributed architecture to Domain Control Unit (DCU) and Zone Control Unit (ZCU) architectures. Fabless will still focus on high-performance computing for vehicles and develop in-vehicle telematics systems and SoCs for self-driving computing. Currently, the 32-Bit MCU type ECU has become popular on the market. In 2023, its penetration rate will exceed 60% with a total turnover up to US$7.4 billion.
3)New specifications will be used for DRAM, Development of 200+ Layer NAND Flash Accelerates
In 2023, not only will server CPUs such as Intel Sapphire Rapids and AMD Genoa support CXL 1.0, but DRAM modules will also adopt DDR5. Also, in order to run AI and ML (Machine Learning) operations well, certain server GPUs will introduce a new generation of HBM3 specifications. So, based on planning by memory manufacturers and many xPU providers, a new generation of memory will come into the market step by step in 2023.
Stacked layers of NAND flash will be more in 2023, towards 200+ layer technology finally.With the mass production of Intel Sapphire Rapids and AMD Genoa,enterpise SSDs wil adopt PCIe 5.0 interface whose transfer rate up to 32GT/s for high-speed computing needs such as AI/ML.
4)More and more Assisted Driving applications faciliate the development of Automotive MLCC
Nowadays, L1/L2 level advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are nearly a standard configuration on new cars. L3-level ADAS systems will become an important feature on some high-end car models starting from 2023, resulting in MLCC consumption up to 3000~3500 units.
5)Electric vehicles market keeps enlgarging although the cost of battery-related materials have increased much.
Driven by the global goal of net zero carbon emission,there is more and more market demand for power batteries.In 2023, global power battery production capacity will exceed the TWh (Terawatt-hour, one million megawatt-hours) threshold and total value will be close to US$120 billion.Auto makers hope to shorten the battery supply chain to avoid supply chain problems.Using different types of batteries according to vehicle grades diversifies supply risk and reduces cost. Integrating designs through cell-to-pack (CTP), cell-to-chassis (CTC) improve the modularity of battery and chassis.
6)Chinese panel makers expanded production capacity and technology in small-size AMOLED Market
By a strategy of supply chain localization, local Chinese mobile phone manufacturers are gradually making more and more use of foldable AMOLED panels sourced from Chinese panel factories. AMOLED driver IC are expected to be converted to a RAM-less architecture to reduce costs. As flexible AMOLED panel structure is adjusted, the cost of some flexible AMOLED panel products can be reduced to that of standard Rigid AMOLED panel.
7)AMOLED notebook is another important part of the market.AMOLED notebooks are expected to cover approximately 1.7% in 2023.
Micro LED are seen in more and more applications in terms of TV and Automotive Displays Drive, Mini LED Backlight
Mini LED technology is the best solution for improving LCD contrast. Due to limited OLED production capacity, more than 95% of flat-screen TVs are expected to keep the use of LCD technology in 2023. Mini LED provides the best path for LCD TVs to improve technical specifications. Currenctly, Chinese manufacturers are actively investing in the whole supply chain of Mini LED products. Through a strategy of pricing by quantity, manufacturers can use a higher cost-efficacy to improve Mini LED backlighting penetration rate. Mini LED TV shipments are estimated to reach 4.4 million units in 2023, an annual increase of approximately 13%.
Vehicle displays are another Mini LED backlight applications. Mini LED backlights provide better brightness, contrast, and reliability and improve driving safety. In 2023, approximately 300,000 Mini LED automotive displays are estimated to be shipped, an annual increase of approximately 50%.
Smart watch wearables will be the next important application for Micro LED displays in 2023 with high-priced fitness trackers as a starting point. In the future, design will be focused on Micro LEDs combined with flexible backplanes.
Micro LED is very suitable for application in a high-end automotive environment. For example, for heads-up display (HUD) applications, a HUD integrates and projects dashboard and navigation system information onto the front windshield to ensure driving safety. Micro LEDs with active driving solutions can also be directly displayed on the transparent glass backplane to achieve a HUD function.
8)5G Smartphones market share is expected to surpass 60% in 2023
Looking forward to 2023, the proportion of 5G smartphones is estimated to cover over 60% in mobile phone market. With smartphone brands successively launching new flagship folding devices and driven by improved specifications and more competitive pricing, penetration rate is expected to reach 1.8% in 2023.
9)More and more AR/VR Products will help Accelerate Metaverse application
The Metaverse will attract more and more manufacturers to accelerate investments in AR/VR product development and launch more products to market in 2023. In the consumer market, manufacturers will focus on application such as virtual communities, games, and live streaming of virtual characters (VTubers) while commercial distance conferencing and distance education can provide more live communication and interactions through the Metaverse platform than 2D video.
AR/VR applications will also play an important role in smart manufacturing, smart transportation, and smart cities in order for energy conservation and carbon reduction. Supported by AI applications and computing performance, virtual simulations will reduce the costs of running corporations and governments.
10) Wireless Home Broadband will become more popular in 2023 owning to large-scale commercial use of 5G FWA around the world
Nowadays, 83 operators in more than 45 countries and regions worldwide have provided 3GPP-compliant 5G FWA services. In 2023, operators around the world have invested more in the wireless broadband construction. Operators are also providing the deployment of FWA services, accelerating the application of broadband Internet services, and improving transmission rates through wireless communication technology.The availablity of new spectrum in multiple frequency bands and services that are becoming gradually more affordable to families will result in the faster development of 5G FWA in 2023.
The 2023 is already on the way, let us wait to see if all of these 10 technical anticipations will become true by the end of this year.
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