NEWS
NEWS
2024 will be on the wave of 7 some revolutional tech trends that might come
21-10-2023
Facing the growing popularity of ChatBOTs, generative AI in the year 2023, it is estimated that AI server shipments will achieve 38% in the year 2024.More and more big service providers are also focusing on the development of their own ASIC chips, which might eat growth of GPUs.In summary, technological trend in the year 2024 will involve much of AI technology such as AI models,servers,GPUs and more, for example, it is estimated that AI server shipments from 2023 to 2026 will exceed 20% at least.
1) HBM3e will achieve an annual increase of 172% in HBM revenue
Market requirement for AI accelerator chips is rising owning to the construction of AI servers. HBM is a very important DRAM product for these accelerator chips. Facing coming 2024, the three major memory suppliers will further improve HBM3e speeds to 8 Gbps for even better performance for AI accelerator chips.
In the AI accelerator chip market, besides NVIDIA and AMD, other big service providers are also developing proprietary AI chips with HBM integration faster. It is estimated that in 2024, HBM will result in more memory suppliers’ revenues given that the average unit price of HBM is several times higher than other DRAM products at an annual growth rate of 172%.
2) Rising market demand advanced packaging on AI chips while facing the emergency of 3D IC technology
Industry leaders like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel are not only making great changes to transistor architecture but also recognizing the major role of packaging technology, especially as semiconductor front-end manufacturing processes byond physical limits. Advanced packaging is becoming so important to improve chip performance, conserving hardware space, reducing power consumption, and minimizing latency. For example, Both TSMC and Samsung have already begun to establish 3D IC research centers in Japan.
Recently, the rise of ChatBOTs has seen highest growth in AI applications, thus increasing the demand for 2.5D packaging technology that enhances AI computational power by integrating computing chips and memory. In fact, several 2.5D packaging solutions suppliers, such as TSMC’s CoWoS, Intel’s EMIB, and Samsung’s I-Cube, have been developed for years. By 2024, suppliers will focus on increasing 2.5D packaging capacity to meet the rising demand for high computational power in applications like AI.
Meanwhile, the newest 3D packaging technology suppliers such as TSMC’s SoIC, Samsung’s X-Cube, and Intel’s Foveros have been announced. Effective integration of chips with varying functions and manufacturing processes is essential to meet the requirements for high computational power, low latency, and energy efficiency in applications such as AI and autonomous vehicles.
Looking ahead to 2024, major semiconductor manufacturers will be focusing their efforts on satellite communication chips. For rising demand for high-end smartphones among certain user segments, small-scale commercial testing of NTN networks will begin. From a long-term view on mobile satellite communications, ISL communication technologies hold promise; they enable data transmission between low-orbit satellites and simultaneous relays to large-scale cross-regional user devices, thereby achieving low latency 6G communication around the world.
3) Planning for 6G communication to begin in 2024, along with satellite communication
In 2024, 6G key technologies and standars will evovle to result in more novel technological applications such as Reconfigurable Intelligent Surfaces (RIS), terahertz frequency bands, Optical Wireless Communication (OWC),NTNs for high-altitude communication applications, and more immersive Extended Reality (XR) sensory experiences. 6G will be designed to achieve revolutionary applications like holographic projections, tactile communications, and digital twins.
Low-orbit satellites will continue to support 6G communications. It is antipicated that global deployments of low-orbit satellites will grow along with commercialization of 6G. Furthermore, the demand for drones utilized in 6G communication and environmental sensing will be in significant rise in 2024.
4) Cost optimization for Micro LED technology will happen in 2024
It is projected that merely through chip downsizing, the cost reduction for Micro LED chips will be at least 20–25% annually.
The market for micro-projection displays in transparent AR lenses is an important field for Micro LED holds.
Driven by the attraction of mass production and diversified applications, more manufacturers are expected to enter Micro LED in 2024, not only strengthening the supply chain but also further improving the cost structure of Micro LED.
More fierce competition in AR/VR micro-display technologies
Driven by increasing demand for AR/VR headsets, the need for near-eye displays with ultra-high PPI is rising much, with Micro OLED being a leading technology in this space. While there are only a few AR/VR devices currently employing Micro OLED displays, this could change as big players begin to choose them, potentially leading to a broader market presence for Micro OLEDs.
Currently, Micro OLED displays are the example of combining semiconductor processes with AMOLED deposition techniques. For Micro OLED panel makers, stable wafer foundry resources is very important. Both new and established players are realigning their industry resources, and there’s an ongoing shift from current white light OLED technology toward RGB OLED technology.
Developments in material and component technologies are faciliating the commercialization of gallium oxide
The rising applications for high voltage, high temperature, and high frequency continues to grow, and gallium oxide (Ga₂O₃) is emerging as a strong contender for next-generation power semiconductor devices such as electric vehicles, electrical grid systems, and aerospace. Compared to vapor-phase-grown silicon carbide and gallium nitride, gallium oxide crystals can be produced using melt growth methods . Nowdays,the mass production of 4-inch gallium oxide mono-crystals has been realized, hoping to expand to 6-inch in the coming years. While gallium oxide still faces challenges, such as poor thermal conductivity and the absence of P-type doping,more and more major players in the power semiconductor industry will fasten its commercialization in near future.
5) The EV battery industry will revolutionize along with solid-state batteries technology poised to make big breakthrough
As the EV battery industry begins with TWh manufacturing, the demand for batteries with better safety and energy density has become more and more. Major auto makers and battery manufacturers are making more investment and research in next-gen battery technologies such as colloidal-state batteries.
As we know, Li-ion batteries have been popular in the EV sector. Sodium-ion batteries, for instance, offer a cost advantage due to the abundant and evenly distributed reserves of sodium. However, their lower energy density means more suitable for budget-friendly EVs that don’t require extensive driving range.
Hydrogen fuel cells have several advantages such as zero emissions, long driving range, quick refueling, and the ability to support cold starts. They are primarily targeted for use in heavy-duty commercial vehicles. However, hydrogen fuel cells face challenges such as low energy conversion efficiency, high costs for hydrogen production and storage, and controversial production process of hydrogen.
Better power conversion efficiency,longer driving range, and improved charging efficiency will be the three primary focuses for electric cars in 2024
By 2024, the production capacity of 8-inch SiC wafers is expected to gradually grown. However, yield rates still need improvement, and the majority of the capacity is already reserved by downstream manufacturers.
NCM and LFP are still the best choices for automakers when it comes to driving range. 2024 is a critical year to see the commercialization of these state batteries. There will also be a big increase in vehicles based on the 800V platform in an effort to reduce charging times.Wireless charging is also popularizing.
Beside, the enhanced AI technology is leading EVs toward advanced autonomous driving. AI plays a big role in enhancing efficiency, including assisting in the classification and labeling of vast amounts of images, as well as simulating scenarios. Tesla has announed that it will begin to make mass production of Dojo supercomputer,aiming to invest US$1 billion in neural network training with Dojo in 2024.
in 2024, the focus of smart manufacturing and energy management will be on reducing energy consumption in drive systems, creating a fully interconnected data ecosystem, and visualizing energy flow and consumption. Emerging technologies like generative AI and 3D printing have the potential to drive design and production modeling phases so as to reduce resource waste and showing significant future potential.
7) OLED technology will been seen more on foldable phones because of commercialization of new technology and materials
As the market penetration of folding phones gradually increases, its not only important to continue technological developments on OLED technology but also to effectively reduce costs, ensuring profitability as the products become more widespread in the market.
As OLED technology keeps penetrating the smartphone market, the IT sector will be the second filed for OLED development. It is expected that by the end of 2024, the introduction of new technologies will overcome the size limitations of current FMM and evaporation equipment.Along with the commercialization of longer-lasting materials and the successful mass production from next generation production lines, all these developments will greatly help the market penetration rate of OLED technology across more applications.
1) HBM3e will achieve an annual increase of 172% in HBM revenue
Market requirement for AI accelerator chips is rising owning to the construction of AI servers. HBM is a very important DRAM product for these accelerator chips. Facing coming 2024, the three major memory suppliers will further improve HBM3e speeds to 8 Gbps for even better performance for AI accelerator chips.
In the AI accelerator chip market, besides NVIDIA and AMD, other big service providers are also developing proprietary AI chips with HBM integration faster. It is estimated that in 2024, HBM will result in more memory suppliers’ revenues given that the average unit price of HBM is several times higher than other DRAM products at an annual growth rate of 172%.
2) Rising market demand advanced packaging on AI chips while facing the emergency of 3D IC technology
Industry leaders like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel are not only making great changes to transistor architecture but also recognizing the major role of packaging technology, especially as semiconductor front-end manufacturing processes byond physical limits. Advanced packaging is becoming so important to improve chip performance, conserving hardware space, reducing power consumption, and minimizing latency. For example, Both TSMC and Samsung have already begun to establish 3D IC research centers in Japan.
Recently, the rise of ChatBOTs has seen highest growth in AI applications, thus increasing the demand for 2.5D packaging technology that enhances AI computational power by integrating computing chips and memory. In fact, several 2.5D packaging solutions suppliers, such as TSMC’s CoWoS, Intel’s EMIB, and Samsung’s I-Cube, have been developed for years. By 2024, suppliers will focus on increasing 2.5D packaging capacity to meet the rising demand for high computational power in applications like AI.
Meanwhile, the newest 3D packaging technology suppliers such as TSMC’s SoIC, Samsung’s X-Cube, and Intel’s Foveros have been announced. Effective integration of chips with varying functions and manufacturing processes is essential to meet the requirements for high computational power, low latency, and energy efficiency in applications such as AI and autonomous vehicles.
Looking ahead to 2024, major semiconductor manufacturers will be focusing their efforts on satellite communication chips. For rising demand for high-end smartphones among certain user segments, small-scale commercial testing of NTN networks will begin. From a long-term view on mobile satellite communications, ISL communication technologies hold promise; they enable data transmission between low-orbit satellites and simultaneous relays to large-scale cross-regional user devices, thereby achieving low latency 6G communication around the world.
3) Planning for 6G communication to begin in 2024, along with satellite communication
In 2024, 6G key technologies and standars will evovle to result in more novel technological applications such as Reconfigurable Intelligent Surfaces (RIS), terahertz frequency bands, Optical Wireless Communication (OWC),NTNs for high-altitude communication applications, and more immersive Extended Reality (XR) sensory experiences. 6G will be designed to achieve revolutionary applications like holographic projections, tactile communications, and digital twins.
Low-orbit satellites will continue to support 6G communications. It is antipicated that global deployments of low-orbit satellites will grow along with commercialization of 6G. Furthermore, the demand for drones utilized in 6G communication and environmental sensing will be in significant rise in 2024.
4) Cost optimization for Micro LED technology will happen in 2024
It is projected that merely through chip downsizing, the cost reduction for Micro LED chips will be at least 20–25% annually.
The market for micro-projection displays in transparent AR lenses is an important field for Micro LED holds.
Driven by the attraction of mass production and diversified applications, more manufacturers are expected to enter Micro LED in 2024, not only strengthening the supply chain but also further improving the cost structure of Micro LED.
More fierce competition in AR/VR micro-display technologies
Driven by increasing demand for AR/VR headsets, the need for near-eye displays with ultra-high PPI is rising much, with Micro OLED being a leading technology in this space. While there are only a few AR/VR devices currently employing Micro OLED displays, this could change as big players begin to choose them, potentially leading to a broader market presence for Micro OLEDs.
Currently, Micro OLED displays are the example of combining semiconductor processes with AMOLED deposition techniques. For Micro OLED panel makers, stable wafer foundry resources is very important. Both new and established players are realigning their industry resources, and there’s an ongoing shift from current white light OLED technology toward RGB OLED technology.
Developments in material and component technologies are faciliating the commercialization of gallium oxide
The rising applications for high voltage, high temperature, and high frequency continues to grow, and gallium oxide (Ga₂O₃) is emerging as a strong contender for next-generation power semiconductor devices such as electric vehicles, electrical grid systems, and aerospace. Compared to vapor-phase-grown silicon carbide and gallium nitride, gallium oxide crystals can be produced using melt growth methods . Nowdays,the mass production of 4-inch gallium oxide mono-crystals has been realized, hoping to expand to 6-inch in the coming years. While gallium oxide still faces challenges, such as poor thermal conductivity and the absence of P-type doping,more and more major players in the power semiconductor industry will fasten its commercialization in near future.
5) The EV battery industry will revolutionize along with solid-state batteries technology poised to make big breakthrough
As the EV battery industry begins with TWh manufacturing, the demand for batteries with better safety and energy density has become more and more. Major auto makers and battery manufacturers are making more investment and research in next-gen battery technologies such as colloidal-state batteries.
As we know, Li-ion batteries have been popular in the EV sector. Sodium-ion batteries, for instance, offer a cost advantage due to the abundant and evenly distributed reserves of sodium. However, their lower energy density means more suitable for budget-friendly EVs that don’t require extensive driving range.
Hydrogen fuel cells have several advantages such as zero emissions, long driving range, quick refueling, and the ability to support cold starts. They are primarily targeted for use in heavy-duty commercial vehicles. However, hydrogen fuel cells face challenges such as low energy conversion efficiency, high costs for hydrogen production and storage, and controversial production process of hydrogen.
Better power conversion efficiency,longer driving range, and improved charging efficiency will be the three primary focuses for electric cars in 2024
By 2024, the production capacity of 8-inch SiC wafers is expected to gradually grown. However, yield rates still need improvement, and the majority of the capacity is already reserved by downstream manufacturers.
NCM and LFP are still the best choices for automakers when it comes to driving range. 2024 is a critical year to see the commercialization of these state batteries. There will also be a big increase in vehicles based on the 800V platform in an effort to reduce charging times.Wireless charging is also popularizing.
Beside, the enhanced AI technology is leading EVs toward advanced autonomous driving. AI plays a big role in enhancing efficiency, including assisting in the classification and labeling of vast amounts of images, as well as simulating scenarios. Tesla has announed that it will begin to make mass production of Dojo supercomputer,aiming to invest US$1 billion in neural network training with Dojo in 2024.
6) Green solutions is intensified more in the world, AI simulations is required more for renewable energy and decarbonized manufacturing
in 2024, the focus of smart manufacturing and energy management will be on reducing energy consumption in drive systems, creating a fully interconnected data ecosystem, and visualizing energy flow and consumption. Emerging technologies like generative AI and 3D printing have the potential to drive design and production modeling phases so as to reduce resource waste and showing significant future potential.
7) OLED technology will been seen more on foldable phones because of commercialization of new technology and materials
As the market penetration of folding phones gradually increases, its not only important to continue technological developments on OLED technology but also to effectively reduce costs, ensuring profitability as the products become more widespread in the market.
As OLED technology keeps penetrating the smartphone market, the IT sector will be the second filed for OLED development. It is expected that by the end of 2024, the introduction of new technologies will overcome the size limitations of current FMM and evaporation equipment.Along with the commercialization of longer-lasting materials and the successful mass production from next generation production lines, all these developments will greatly help the market penetration rate of OLED technology across more applications.
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